Trump’s Economic Strategy Shatters Wall Street Forecasts

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said Tuesday that Wall Street economists have repeatedly underestimated President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, pointing to new data showing the U.S. economy grew at a robust 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter.

Appearing on “Rob Schmitt Tonight,” Hassett cited a Bloomberg survey showing that nearly all forecasters missed the latest growth surge.

“Sixty-one out of 62 people were polled by Bloomberg – came in way below the number,” Hassett said. “And I was so interested by that fact, I asked my staff to look today.

They went back and looked at all the numbers that have been coming out since the summer, and they found that 94% of the time – 94% – the Wall Street economists that were surveyed by Bloomberg underestimated Donald Trump.”

Hassett credited Trump’s long-held economic vision for the unexpected strength, saying the president combined supply-side tax cuts with an aggressive trade policy that critics long dismissed as risky.

“The bottom line is that President Trump did this,” Hassett said. “Nobody in the White House was surprised.”

Hassett said trade policy alone accounted for roughly 1.6 percentage points of the third-quarter growth, arguing that Trump’s effort to reduce dependence on China has helped bring jobs and income back to the United States.

He noted that imports from China have dropped from 22% of total U.S. imports in 2017 to about 9%, the lowest level since China joined the World Trade Organization.

Hassett also rejected predictions that Trump’s policies would drive inflation higher, pointing to recent data showing core inflation at 1.6%.

“They said it would cause an inflation spike, and it hasn’t,” Hassett said.

Hassett said the pattern of economists missing Trump’s economic performance mirrors the president’s first term, when growth consistently exceeded forecasts despite widespread skepticism.

“I think sooner or later people are going to have to stop underestimating him,” Hassett said. “The data keeps coming out like the previous term, and now this term, too.”

Hassett also pointed to strong consumer spending as evidence that Americans are optimistic about the economy, citing a third-quarter consumption boom and what he described as the largest Black Friday on record.

“If they’re out there spending like we see in this report, that means the American people are optimistic,” he said.