Tight Contests and Shifting Momentum Define Critical State and City Elections
epa08909487 Students of Secular Club of the American University of Beirut (AUB) hold banner reading in Arabic 'education right for all' during a protest in front AUB building in Beirut, Lebanon, 29 December 2020. Tens of Lebanese students are protesting against policies of private schools and universities after tuition adjustments that AUB and other universities had recently announced. EPA-EFE/NABIL MOUNZER
By Newsmax Wires | Sunday, 02 November 2025 11:20 PM EST
As voters prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday, new surveys released over the weekend indicate that key races in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City remain highly competitive, with Democrats holding narrow advantages in some contests and tightening margins in others.
In New Jersey, the governor’s race has become a nail-biter. A new AtlasIntel poll conducted Oct. 25–30 shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill narrowly leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli, 50.2% to 49.3%, within the survey’s 2-point margin of error. The poll, which sampled more than 1,600 likely voters, highlights how evenly divided the Garden State remains as both campaigns push toward the finish line. The close numbers coincided with former President Barack Obama’s Nov. 1 rally for Sherrill, underscoring the Democrats’ focus on the contest. While New Jersey has leaned Democratic in recent presidential and statewide elections, Ciattarelli’s strong challenge has energized Republicans aiming to reclaim the governor’s mansion.
Early voting patterns offer Democrats a modest edge. CNN’s analysis of pre-election data reveals that Democratic turnout—both by mail and in early in-person voting—is slightly ahead of 2024 levels, when then-Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by six points. Registered Democrats currently outpace Republicans in mail-ballot returns by over 41 points, compared to a 39-point advantage at this stage last year. Democrats have also gained a small but significant 2-point edge in early in-person voting, reversing their deficit from a year ago.
In Virginia, Democrat Gov. Abigail Spanberger appears to hold a strong position for re-election, while the state’s attorney general race remains razor-sharp. A new Hill/Emerson poll shows Spanberger leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 56% to 44%, maintaining a comfortable margin ahead of the final weekend. However, the downballot race for attorney general is a virtual toss-up: Democrat Jerra Jones holds 51% to Republican incumbent Jason Miyares’s 49%, well within the margin of error. Early voting trends mirror those in New Jersey, with CNN analysts noting that Democrats are performing slightly better than they did in 2024. Mail-in participation and early in-person turnout both indicate higher engagement among Democratic voters, providing Spanberger’s campaign with momentum—but party strategists caution that Virginia’s recent elections have seen significant day-of-voting swings, keeping the race unpredictable.
Meanwhile, the 2025 New York City mayoral race remains fluid. The latest AtlasIntel survey shows incumbent Zohran Mamdani holding a 7-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 41% to 34%, with Republican Curtis Sliwa drawing 24%. While Mamdani retains the advantage, the gap has narrowed compared to earlier polls that showed double-digit margins. Cuomo’s campaign has capitalized on a late surge of support among older and more moderate Democrats. Early voting data analyzed by CNN indicates that older voters have turned out at higher rates than during the primary, when Mamdani’s energized youth movement powered his upset victory. Nonetheless, the electorate remains younger overall than in past mayoral contests, and turnout among younger voters has increased as Election Day approaches—a sign that Mamdani’s base may be re-mobilizing.
Across all three contests, final weekend polling and early-voting analysis suggest mild Democratic tailwinds, though none of the key races appear locked up. In both New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats are outperforming their 2024 benchmarks, while in New York City, Cuomo has narrowed Mamdani’s edge but still trails. As campaigns flood airwaves and voters make final decisions, analysts urge caution: early-voting trends can indicate enthusiasm but do not guarantee results. With turnout expected to spike on Election Day itself, the ultimate outcome in these closely watched races could hinge on which side’s supporters show up in full force on Tuesday.
