Texas Senate Primaries: Paxton and Crockett Claim Early Leads in New Polls

New polling data released Monday reveals Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn by seven percentage points among likely Republican primary voters, while Democratic Representative Jasmine Crockett edges state representative James Talarico by eight percentage points in the Democrat contest.

The survey, conducted from January 20 to January 31 with 550 likely Republican and 550 likely Democratic voters, shows 12% of respondents remain undecided in both races—a shift from recent polls that indicated tighter competition. In hypothetical general election matchups, the data indicates close contests: Paxton and Cornyn could each defeat Crockett by approximately two percentage points, with Paxton outperforming Cornyn against Talarico. Between 7% and 8% of likely voters remain uncertain about their voting intentions in these scenarios.

Among Republican primary voters, Paxton commands 38% support compared to Cornyn’s 31%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%. The survey shows Paxton maintains a lead in runoff scenarios and outperforms Cornyn across most demographic groups, except among Latino voters where Cornyn holds a seven-percentage-point edge.

Crockett leads the Democratic field with 47% support versus Talarico’s 39%, dominating most demographics except white voters and those with advanced degrees. Among likely Latino primary voters, Crockett receives 46% backing compared to Talarico’s 37%, with 15% undecided—a reversal from earlier polling that showed Talarico ahead in this group.

Overall familiarity with candidates differs significantly, with 92% of respondents saying they know enough about Crockett to form an opinion versus 85% for Talarico. The survey also sampled 1,502 likely general election voters, revealing 49% approve of President Donald Trump’s performance and 50% disapprove. At least 50% of respondents express disapproval of his handling of foreign policy, the economy, international trade, and the cost of living, while 51% approve of his approach to immigration and border security compared with 47% who disapprove.

The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.18 percentage points.