Record Tax Refunds Expected in 2026 Under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill
By Charlie McCarthy | Sunday, 21 December 2025 12:19 PM EST
Americans overall can expect the largest tax refunds ever in 2026, thanks to President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.
This prediction is being promoted by the Trump administration, congressional Republicans, and tax experts as the bill’s cuts begin appearing in household finances through initial refund surges before gradually increasing take-home pay via adjusted federal withholding.
Administration officials are projecting “the largest tax refund ever” for 2026 because many workers continued to have taxes withheld at higher levels even after the law was signed into effect.
House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., referenced a December memo highlighting a Piper Sandler analysis that indicates 2026 is poised to become “the largest tax refund season.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced this forecast, noting refunds could reach $100 billion to $150 billion, translating to approximately $1,000 to $2,000 per household. He explained that this outcome stems from withholding tables not adjusting immediately post-law enactment, causing many taxpayers to effectively overpay during the year.
Republicans characterize this phenomenon as a feature—not a bug—of immediate relief families will notice.
In a recent statement, Smith emphasized that 2026 is “shaping up to be the largest tax refund season” due to “tax cuts for working families” enacted under Trump. He highlighted provisions targeting blue-collar workers and seniors, including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security, alongside a larger standard deduction and an expanded child tax credit.
Smith argued these measures will assist families in covering everyday costs that increased during the Biden administration. “Waitresses, welders, seniors, moms, and dads will have more money in their pockets to put food on the table,” Smith stated, calling the bill a direct response to inflation and higher living expenses.
The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy group, explained timing as critical for why refund checks could exceed typical amounts. Their analysis indicates that refunds are likely larger than usual because the One Big Beautiful Bill’s 2025 tax cuts reduced individual taxes but withholding tables were not adjusted promptly.
This delay means many taxpayers will receive a substantial portion of the tax cut “all at once” when filing their 2025 returns in early 2026, rather than through incremental increases in paychecks over time.
The group estimated that the law reduced individual income taxes by $144 billion for 2025 and cited external analyses suggesting up to $100 billion of this could materialize as higher refunds next filing season—potentially boosting average refunds by as much as $1,000, depending on a taxpayer’s circumstances.
Conservatives note that Democrats and some outside groups have criticized the bill as favoring high earners. However, Republicans maintain that refund season will serve as an immediate test of the policy’s impact: Families will see the benefits hit their accounts directly.
As withholding tables adjust later, Treasury officials anticipate workers will experience further benefits through increased take-home pay, reinforcing President Trump’s stance that tax relief—not additional government spending—is the fastest path to household financial support.
Charlie McCarthy is a writer/editor with nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics for Newsmax.
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