California Redistricting Shifts Favor Democrats in 2026 Midterms, Analysts Say
By Sandy Fitzgerald | Wednesday, 05 November 2025 02:41 PM EST
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted 11 California congressional races for 2026 toward the Democratic Party, marking a significant realignment of the political landscape following voters’ approval of Proposition 50. The measure temporarily suspends California’s independent redistricting commission, transferring control of the process to lawmakers ahead of next year’s midterm elections, according to a report from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
The redistricting changes bolster Democratic incumbents Jim Costa, Adam Gray, Josh Harder, Dave Min, Derek Tran, and George Whitesides in their re-election bids, while California Republicans Darrell Issa and David Valadao saw their races downgraded to toss-ups. Rep. Doug LaMalfa transitioned from “safe Republican” to “likely Democratic,” leaving only Rep. Young Kim as the sole California Republican still rated as “safe.”
The shifts represent one of the largest single-state adjustments in this election cycle, reflecting broader Democratic efforts to reclaim control of the narrowly divided House. California’s move is part of a national redistricting reshuffle, with five states—California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas—now having finalized new House maps for 2026.
Analysts note potential changes ahead, including Missouri potentially placing its map on the 2026 ballot and Indiana facing pressure to redraw its congressional boundaries. Meanwhile, Utah may see court-ordered adjustments that could create competitive districts for Democrats. Virginia Democrats are also preparing to seek voter approval for a new state map, which could yield additional Democratic seats.
The U.S. Supreme Court’s pending decision on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act looms over these developments, with potential implications for Republican-led states seeking to redraw district lines.
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
