Texas Senate Primary: GOP Divides Over Risk of Democratic Upset in November

Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned this week that a bitter intraparty fight could put the GOP’s hold on a vital Senate seat in Texas at risk of being won by Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.

Thune said during an interview ahead of the state’s primaries that the contest between incumbent Senator John Cornyn, R-Texas; Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton; and Representative Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, has national implications as Republicans fight to maintain control of the Senate.

“Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat flips,” Thune said.

Cornyn, seeking his fifth term, faces what has become one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate primaries in the country. Groups on all sides have poured tens of millions of dollars into television and digital advertising, reflecting both high stakes and rising tension within the party.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee issued a memo asserting that “John Cornyn is the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup” but also warned that “Paxton puts this seat at risk.”

Recent polling shows Paxton with a narrow lead over Cornyn and Representative Wesley Hunt in a three-way split among GOP voters. Many analysts believe the presence of Hunt virtually ensures a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.

Cornyn’s allies have grown increasingly aggressive in recent weeks, launching attack ads criticizing Paxton’s record and personal controversies. These ads, run by Cornyn’s campaign committee and supportive outside groups, portray Paxton as unfit for higher office, reflecting deep concern among establishment Republicans that Paxton’s nomination could make the general election more competitive.

Paxton, a figure long favored by the hard-right wing of the party, has dismissed worries about the seat’s vulnerability. He told supporters he is prepared for a tough November fight and repeatedly rejected the notion that the Republican advantage in Texas is at risk, despite multiple internal and public polling surveys showing a tighter general election margin should he become the nominee.

Republicans have controlled the Texas Senate seat for decades, with no Democrat winning a Senate race in the state since 1988. However, national and state GOP strategists acknowledge that internal fractures and the absence of a unified nominee could give Democrats a rare opportunity for an upset.

Early voting in the primary runs through Friday, with Election Day set for Tuesday. Texas Democratic contenders include State Representative James Talarico and U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, who are vying to face the eventual Republican nominee in what could be one of November’s most closely watched Senate contests.