Texas AG Ken Paxton Surges as Cornyn Campaign Crumbles Under Record Opposition Spending
By Alex Chen | 18 February 2026
A University of Houston survey conducted January 20-31 among 550 likely Republican primary voters found Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Senator John Cornyn in the March 3 Republican Senate primary runoff, with Paxton at 38% and Cornyn at 31%. Representative Wesley Hunt trailed at 17%.
The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.18 percentage points, also indicated that Cornyn would lose to Paxton by an 11-point margin in a direct head-to-head matchup.
Despite more than $60 million spent by establishment-backed Republicans on television advertisements highlighting Paxton’s impeachment trial, corruption allegations, and divorce, Paxton has largely avoided direct responses. He did not begin his own advertising campaign until recently.
“I don’t want to give their attacks dignity,” Paxton said this week following an early voting kickoff event. “My numbers look as good as they ever have. This is going to be a good race for me,” he continued. “Now, John Cornyn’s at risk of finishing third … He is in serious trouble of not even making a runoff.”
Senate Republican leaders have long warned that Paxton’s hard-line conservatism and legal controversies could alienate moderate and independent voters in November, posing a risk for the general election. Cornyn, by contrast, has touted bipartisan accomplishments on gun legislation and support for Ukraine.
However, Cornyn’s past skepticism of former President Donald Trump has complicated his appeal to primary voters.
As early voting began Tuesday, Cornyn intensified his attacks on Paxton: “We will have an Election Day massacre,” he said. “Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like our corrupt attorney general hung around their neck.”
Paxton’s loyal conservative base, forged through years of high-profile legal battles as Texas’ top law enforcement officer, has proven resilient. He sued to challenge the 2020 presidential election results, targeted Pfizer over its COVID-19 vaccine, and pursued legal actions against doctors providing gender-transitioning services.
He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 but later acquitted by the state Senate.
“Ken Paxton has his base and his base isn’t leaving him,” said Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, who endorsed Paxton. “If a nasty divorce would disqualify you from being a member of Congress, we could not establish a quorum in Washington, D.C.”
The contest shifted further when Hunt entered the race in October, increasing the likelihood of a runoff and forcing no candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote.
Both Paxton and Cornyn have publicly downplayed Hunt’s candidacy. However, allied groups have spent significant resources attacking him — a signal that each camp views him as a potential spoiler.
“I guess I’m doing better in the polls than you’re letting on,” Hunt said at a Dallas event this week. “Otherwise, you wouldn’t be spending the money.”
Paxton has signaled confidence in a potential general election matchup: “I’ve won three statewide races — all of a sudden now I can’t win one?”
The contest is expected to favor Paxton’s energized conservative base, which typically turns out in lower-profile elections with smaller, more ideologically driven electorates. Cornyn acknowledged he would need to expand his voter outreach beyond traditional primary supporters.
Cornyn has leaned on endorsements from business and agricultural groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Texas Farm Bureau, which he said collectively represent nearly 2.6 million members. “We’re doing things that have never been done before to try to encourage people to turn out,” Cornyn stated.
Paxton has avoided directly criticizing Senate GOP leadership or the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has publicly criticized him while backing Cornyn. “I’m not here to criticize any particular person other than the guy that’s running: John Cornyn,” Paxton said.
