Progressive Wave Threatens Democratic Incumbents as New Jersey Primary Results Ignite Nationwide Concerns

With near-final results from the special primary in New Jersey’s 11th District, far-left Democrat organizer Analilia Mejia clung to a roughly 500-vote lead (29.75%) over 12 opponents as of Saturday.

Should Mejia’s lead over “establishment” Democrat and former Rep. Tom Malinowski hold, it would likely send shockwaves to other Democrats trying to advance the progressive or “social Democrat” cause within their party.

Coming on the heels of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s election, an eventual victory by Mejia in the race to fill the House seat vacated by New Jersey Gov. Mike Sherrill on April 16—where she faces Republican Joe Hathaway—could fuel similar challenges to veteran Democratic incumbents in at least a half-dozen House primaries this year.

Among the “establishment” lawmakers facing challenges to renomination from younger “social Democrats” are Reps. Stephen Lynch (Massachusetts), Brad Sherman (California), Ed Case (Hawaii), and John Larson (Connecticut). Additionally, younger progressives are positioning themselves to compete for seats being vacated by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.

“Party primaries typically favor the ideological wings where the grassroots energy is greatest,” Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, said. “The surge left in Democratic contests has amplified significantly in the Trump era. Party activists perceive liberal candidates as the most committed to aggressively challenging the Trump administration. Right now, these voters are in no mood for establishment politics, policy moderation, or compromising.”

Mejia, a former political director for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, ran on a hard-left platform that included abolishing ICE, canceling student loan debt, implementing universal Medicare, expanding the Supreme Court, and impeaching Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. Endorsed by Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Mejia raised about $420,000—roughly one-third the amount raised by Malinowski.

But Malinowski was no doubt wounded by an independent expenditure from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee that criticized his support for placing conditions on U.S. aid to Israel. Malinowski, 60, was also hurt by cries of “carpetbagger” for having represented a neighboring district from 2018 until his defeat by Republican Tom Kean Jr. in 2022.

Noting the circumstances that worked to Mejia’s benefit, Louis Perron, political scientist and author of The Beat the Incumbent, said: “The rest of the country is not New York and not New Jersey, for that matter. Special elections are special. I was observing it from the outside, but my experience is that there are very often also local factors driving a race that don’t fit into the national storyline about a race.”

But he quickly added: “It’s clear that progressives will be a strong voice in the Democratic primary, for which preparations will start right after the midterms.”