U.S. Homicide Rate Plummets 20% in 2025, Lowest Since FBI Data Tracking Began

By Jim Mishler | Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Preliminary crime data from across the country shows the United States is poised to end 2025 with the largest one-year decline in homicides ever recorded. According to a sampling of statistics from 550 U.S. law enforcement agencies, nationwide homicides are expected to fall by roughly 20%.

Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, told ABC News, “Even taking a conservative view, let’s say it’s 17% or 16%, you’re still looking at the largest one-year drop ever recorded in 2025.”

The decline follows a 15% drop in homicides during 2024, which set the record for the largest annual decrease. Homicides fell 13% in 2023 and 6% in 2022, according to FBI data. Asher said the total number of homicides nationwide is expected to be the lowest since the FBI began tracking such data in 1960. His analysis relies on the Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles monthly crime data from hundreds of police departments nationwide.

Earlier FBI data showed homicides declined by 18% between September 2024 and August 2025, while violent crime overall fell 9% and property crime dropped 12%. Several major cities are on track to record their lowest homicide totals in decades. Detroit, Philadelphia, and Baltimore are expected to post their fewest murders since the 1960s. New Orleans is on pace for its lowest total since 1970, while San Francisco could record its fewest homicides since 1940.

Chicago homicides have fallen by 30% compared with 2024 and nearly 50% compared with 2021, according to city data. Asher noted the downward trend extends beyond homicides: aggravated assaults are down 8% nationwide, and motor vehicle theft has dropped 23%.

Robert Boyce, a retired chief of detectives for the New York Police Department, said the data reflects a return to conditions seen before the pandemic. “When the pandemic hit, courts shut down, schools shut down, and policing changed,” he said. “We couldn’t do our job like we did in previous years.”

Boyce added that homicides surged nationwide during the pandemic but have since steadily declined as law enforcement agencies adjusted tactics and increased coordination with federal prosecutors. “We fought back. We saw gradual decreases,” he stated. As of late December, New York City’s homicide rate has fallen by more than 20% from last year, with shootings reaching historic lows.

“I’m seeing now that we’re back to normal. The reset is here. That’s great news,” Boyce said.

Despite high-profile violent incidents occurring as the year concludes, experts say the data demonstrates a sustained national decline in violent crime—a sharp reversal from pandemic-era peaks.